Empirical Estimate Forecaster

	A	B	C	E	F	G
1	EMPIRICAL ESTIMATE FORECASTER
2
3	Estimate	30
4
5	Forecasts
6	Target Likelihood	Forecast	True Likelihood
7	10%	30.0	9.91%
8	25%	39.4	24.77%
9	50%	65.1	50.00%
10	75%	96.0	74.77%
11	90%	152.7	89.64%
12
13	INSTRUCTIONS:
14	Only edit yellow cells.
15	This spreadsheet forecasts when an estimate will actually be done based on
16	historical estimate accuracy.
17	1. Duplicate this spreadsheet by choosing "Make a Copy" from the "File" menu.
18	(You'll need to log in in order for the option to be available.) It doesn't work in Excel.
19	2. Erase the example data in the Historical Estimates table below. Only erase yellow cells.
20	Fill in your own historical data, in terms of time remaining from when the estimate was made.
21	3. Enter the estimate to forecast above, in the "Estimate" cell. Use the same units as in step 2.
22	4. Read the forecasts from the "Forecasts" table. The "Target Likelihood" column describes
23	the desired chance of meeting or beating the forecast. (The "True Likelihood" column describes
24	the actual chance, which may be different than the "Target Likelihood" column, depending on
25	how much historical data you have.)
26	5. (Optional) You may change the "Target Likelihood" column to see forecasts with different
27	levels of accuracy.
28
29	HISTORICAL ESTIMATES			ESTIMATE DISTRIBUTION
30	Estimate	Actual	Actual/Estimate	Actual/Estimate	Cumulative %	Forecast
31	36	36	1	0.5454545455	0.45%	16.36363636
32	31	46	1.483870968	0.6666666667	0.90%	20
33	31	31	1	0.6875	1.35%	20.625
34	35	76	2.171428571	0.9166666667	1.80%	27.5
35	40	41	1.025	1	2.25%	30
36	30	56	1.866666667	1	2.70%	30
37	35	36	1.028571429	1	3.15%	30
38	29	31	1.068965517	1	3.60%	30
39	16	16	1	1	4.05%	30
40	9	11	1.222222222	1	4.50%	30
41	16	11	0.6875	1	4.95%	30
42	3	21	7	1	5.41%	30
43	16	56	3.5	1	5.86%	30
44	34	36	1.058823529	1	6.31%	30
45	34	61	1.794117647	1	6.76%	30
46	36	56	1.555555556	1	7.21%	30
47	26	51	1.961538462	1	7.66%	30
48	35	56	1.6	1	8.11%	30
49	16	16	1	1	8.56%	30
50	31	41	1.322580645	1	9.01%	30
51	36	46	1.277777778	1	9.46%	30
52	35	86	2.457142857	1	9.91%	30
53	34	36	1.058823529	1	10.36%	30
54	34	36	1.058823529	1	10.81%	30
55	34	76	2.235294118	1	11.26%	30
56	32	91	2.84375	1	11.71%	30
57	15	51	3.4	1	12.16%	30
58	31	71	2.290322581	1	12.61%	30
59	16	31	1.9375	1	13.06%	30
60	28	66	2.357142857	1	13.51%	30
61	23	51	2.217391304	1	13.96%	30
62	35	76	2.171428571	1.025	14.41%	30.75
63	36	81	2.25	1.028571429	14.86%	30.85714286
64	35	51	1.457142857	1.05	15.32%	31.5
65	21	71	3.380952381	1.058823529	15.77%	31.76470588
66	21	21	1	1.058823529	16.22%	31.76470588
67	38	46	1.210526316	1.058823529	16.67%	31.76470588
68	17	51	3	1.068965517	17.12%	32.06896552
69	29	86	2.965517241	1.1	17.57%	33
70	36	41	1.138888889	1.125	18.02%	33.75
71	16	16	1	1.138888889	18.47%	34.16666667
72	1	81	81	1.142857143	18.92%	34.28571429
73	11	56	5.090909091	1.142857143	19.37%	34.28571429
74	46	46	1	1.2	19.82%	36
75	6	51	8.5	1.210526316	20.27%	36.31578947
76	21	56	2.666666667	1.222222222	20.72%	36.66666667
77	27	51	1.888888889	1.222222222	21.17%	36.66666667
78	21	61	2.904761905	1.222222222	21.62%	36.66666667
79	21	21	1	1.238095238	22.07%	37.14285714
80	31	46	1.483870968	1.24	22.52%	37.2
81	21	21	1	1.24	22.97%	37.2
82	31	46	1.483870968	1.277777778	23.42%	38.33333333
83	16	26	1.625	1.3125	23.87%	39.375
84	10	36	3.6	1.3125	24.32%	39.375
85	44	81	1.840909091	1.3125	24.77%	39.375
86	15	36	2.4	1.322580645	25.23%	39.67741935
87	25	46	1.84	1.333333333	25.68%	40
88	30	46	1.533333333	1.375	26.13%	41.25
89	14	46	3.285714286	1.44	26.58%	43.2
90	21	46	2.19047619	1.454545455	27.03%	43.63636364
91	6	16	2.666666667	1.454545455	27.48%	43.63636364
92	13	76	5.846153846	1.454545455	27.93%	43.63636364
93	20	56	2.8	1.454545455	28.38%	43.63636364
94	6	11	1.833333333	1.454545455	28.83%	43.63636364
95	11	46	4.181818182	1.457142857	29.28%	43.71428571
96	36	36	1	1.476190476	29.73%	44.28571429
97	5	11	2.2	1.476190476	30.18%	44.28571429
98	21	46	2.19047619	1.483870968	30.63%	44.51612903
99	6	41	6.833333333	1.483870968	31.08%	44.51612903
100	5	26	5.2	1.483870968	31.53%	44.51612903